It was a tough day for the homies in the NFL on Sunday. Before the Vikings took care of business on the Sunday Night late show, the intruders were 10-1 in day action. Heading into tonight’s AFC South Division matchup between the Jaguars and Texans, road teams were a highly profitable 20-11 ATS.
Based on this week’s results, it’s difficult to say whether this will be an ongoing trend or just a short term anomaly. Thursday, all three home teams won in routs including two double-digit favorites, a situation that has previously been 2-14. The Tampa Bay Bucs were the only home winner (a life and death non-cover) off the day card which figured as NFC South home teams are now 22-2 straight up.
Home teams are favored in thirteen of this week’s sixteen matchups including four (Indy, Tenn., SD, Arizona) by double digits. We also have a double-digit road favorite as Minnesota travels to winless Detroit. It will be interesting to see if home teams and dogs revert to form.
After watching Pittsburgh easily handle the Bengals in their November 20th Thursday nighter and then watching Tennessee and Dallas rip Detroit and Seattle, betting double-digit dogs in the blind is no longer and option. Playoff teams and potential playoff teams are starting to show real separation from the bottom feeders and there is no question in my mind that there are six to eight teams that have quit despite 25% of the schedule yet to be played.
In regards to home teams, expect the hosts to pick up the pace straight up and ATS. The old adage was to go .500 on the road and take care of your business in the home games. With a number of on the field mismatchs and desperate teams home team destroyers like the Packers, Bears, and Saints all at home, it's very unlikely that home teams will continue to play at a 33% SU and ATS clip.
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